The Vikings have managed to stay in the NFC playoff race despite losing starter Kirk Cousins for the year. But those playoff odds took a blow on “Monday Night Football.”
In what was likely their easiest game the rest of the season, the Vikings’ offense looked putrid in a losing 12-10 effort against the Bears, who dominated time of possession (35:50 to 24:00) yet could manage only four field goals.
Minnesota is still very much in the hunt for the postseason. The NFC race remains wide open, with the Cowboys appearing to be the only near-lock among wild-card contenders.
How does losing to the Bears impact Minnesota’s playoff hopes? Here’s what you need to know.
MORE: TSN’s latest power rankings
Vikings playoff chances
The Vikings’ defeat further solidifies the Lions’ place atop the NFC North. A win could have made it a closer race, particularly with both matchups between Minnesota and Detroit the rest of the season still left. But now, Detroit has a more comfortable win.
Team Record Lions 8-3 (2-1) Vikings 6-6 (2-1) Packers 5-6 (2-2) Bears 4-8 (1-3)
Still, the Vikings remain in a wild-card spot, still a half-game up on the Packers, Rams and Saints, who are all sitting at 5-6.
Team Record Cowboys 8-3 Seahawks 6-5 Vikings 6-6 Packers 5-6 Rams 5-6 Saints 5-6
The Sporting News’ projection model indicates how unlikely it is anyone outside of the Lions will win the division. Detroit now has an 89.7 percent chance of winning the division, while the Vikings are next up at 8.8 percent.
Team xW-L Div% WC% Playoff% No. 1 seed% NFC% SB% Lions 12-5 89.7% 9.2% 98.9% 2.1% 9.4% 4% Vikings 9-8 8.8% 52% 60.9% 0% 1% 0.3% Packers 8-9 1.5% 36.3% 37.8% 0% 0.2% 0.1% Bears 6-11 0% 2.4% 2.4% 0% 0% 0%
The model also shows just how far up the Cowboys are on the rest of the NFC in the wild-card race. Dallas is a near lock to clinch a wild card, especially since its chances of winning the NFC East are now down to just 3 percent.
Minnesota is the second-most likely wild-card team, ahead of the Seahawks and Packers, who both have below a 50 percent chance of earning a wild card by the end of the season.
Team xW-L WC% Playoff% Cowboys 11-6 95.8% 98.8% Vikings 9-8 52% 60.9% Seahawks 8-9 40.2% 40.7% Packers 8-9 36.3% 37.8% Rams 7-10 27% 27.2% Falcons 8-9 13.5% 54.7% Saints 8-9 11.9% 55.2%
The Falcons and Saints are both unlikely to reach the playoffs via a wild card, but they both have better chances of reaching the playoffs relative to any other wild-card team outside the Cowboys and Vikings because of the wide-open division. Still, their wild-card odds remain slim.
Vikings remaining schedule
Minnesota will get a week to rest, and while the remainder of the schedule is far from a gauntlet, it’s also not exactly easy.
Coming up after the bye, the Vikings are hitting the road to face the Raiders starting Aidan O’Connell and the Bengals starting Jake Browning. But then, it’s all NFC North from there, starting with a home tilt with the Lions followed by a home game with the Packers. The season wraps with a road game against the Lions.
Week Opponent Win probability 13 Bye NA 14 at Raiders 67.8% 15 at Bengals 53.3% 16 vs. Lions 51.7% 17 vs. Packers 69.3% 18 at Lions 32.2%
The Vikings are favored by Sporting News’ model in four of those games, which helps bolster their chances of reaching the postseason. But the Vikings were also favored by 76.5 percent to beat the Bears, and they came up short.
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