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Now we’re getting into swings for the fences.
The leap from the No. 11 spot to the top of the draft is worth a top-five selection, per the chart. The Minnesota Vikings don’t have an extra one of those lying around, so they’d realistically have to surrender their next two first-rounders—if not 2026’s as well—and a boatload of Day 2 capital.
If nothing else is on the table, the Bears could become more flexible. But they’d be taking a significant draft-capital hit for 2024. The risks would be higher.
As compensation for a drop down from No. 1 to No. 15 in 2016, the Tennessee Titans landed the Los Angeles Rams’ 2017 first-rounder along with two seconds and two thirds (one of which came in 2017). They did surrender some Day 3 draft capital back to L.A., but that was insignificant in the overall picture.
The Vikings already don’t have a third-round pick this year. If they want to move up for Kirk Cousins’ replacement in April, it’s relatively safe to say they’ll be without additional draft picks on the first two days of both this draft and the next one.
Because they’re a division rival of the Bears, it might cost even more than that.
Predicted return: 2024 No. 11 pick, 2025 first-round pick, 2024 second-round pick, 2025 second-round pick, 2025 third-round pick, 2026 first-round pick
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