Who will win Super Bowl 2024? Picks, predictions, odds for Chiefs vs. 49ers in Super Bowl 58

The Kansas City Chiefs will face the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 58 on Sunday, Feb. 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nev. The game will be televised on CBS.

Kansas City is back in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five seasons after a 17-7 victory against Baltimore in the AFC championship game. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are looking for a third Super Bowl championship in that stretch. There has not been a repeat Super Bowl champion since New England in 2003-04, and the Chiefs have found a different way to win this season.

The Chiefs finished 11-6 in the regular season, but they won two road playoff games with the help of a strong defense that allowed 13.7 points per game in victories against high-powered offensive teams in Miami, Buffalo, and Baltimore. Tight end Travis Kelce had a huge playoff showing, too, and yes – we think Taylor Swift will be in attendance at Super Bowl 58. The show must go on.

SUPER BOWL 58 PICKS: Model projection | Against the spread

San Francisco rallied from a 17-point deficit to beat Detroit 34-31 in the NFC championship game. The 49ers finished 12-5 in the regular season, and Kyle coach Shanahan is back in the Super Bowl for the second time in five seasons.

The 49ers have a strong supporting cast around quarterback Brock Purdy, who will make his Super Bowl debut. Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel are part of a dynamic offense, and Nick Bosa leads a defense that stepped up in the second half in playoff victories against Green Bay and Detroit.

The Chiefs and 49ers met in Super Bowl 54, which the Chiefs won 31-20. What has changed? We’re about to find out.

Super Bowl 58 betting odds

Spread: 49ers -2 (Caesars)Over/under: 48.0Moneyline: 49ers -146, Chiefs +124

The Chiefs and 49ers were almost identical against the spread this season.

San Francisco was 14-5 ATS, and it was favored in every game this season. The 49ers were 4-0 ATS when favored by four points or less.

The Chiefs are 11-3-1 ATS and 10-5 S/U as an underdog the past six seasons with Mahomes at quarterback.

Super Bowl 2024 pick, prediction

In three previous Super Bowl appearances, Mahomes has a 61.8-percent completion percentage with five TDs and four interceptions. Those aren’t overwhelming numbers, but he was great in the clutch in the Super Bowl victories against the 49ers and Eagles.

The connection with Kelce has been the focal point of the offense. Kelce has 23 receptions on 27 targets with 257 yards and three TDs in the playoffs, and that is going to be the key matchup against San Francisco linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. Rashee Rice is the other possession target on the outside, but Mahomes will take a handful of vertical shots with the receivers. That is where the edge pressure from Bosa – who had two sacks in the NFC championship game – and Chase Young must be a difference maker. How will Chiefs tackles Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor hold up?

Isiah Pacheco will be the X-factor. Green Bay and Detroit combined to average 159 rushing yards per game and had success on the edge against the 49ers. Pacheco excels at running through contact, too.

San Francisco has a multi-faceted offense around Purdy, who has a 61.4-percent completion percentage with three TDs and one interception in the postseason. He has taken just two sacks in those games, and the Chiefs will try to change that with an elite defensive line led by Chris Jones and edge rusher George Karlaftis, who has 2.5 sacks in the postseason. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has been a part of three Super Bowl championship teams.

How do the Chiefs slow down McCaffrey, who had 188 rushing yards and four TDs against Detroit and Green Bay? McCaffrey was not on the field in that last Super Bowl, and he stands to get 20-plus touches in this game.

The matchup on the outside between Samuel – who will have two weeks to rest a shoulder injury – and cornerback L’Jarius Sneed will be a must-watch matchup. Tight end George Kittle is the key player for the 49ers. How much does he win the middle of the field against Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton, who was a star in last year’s Super Bowl?

Who wins third down? San Francisco ranked third in the NFL at 48.7 percent in the regular season, and that number went up to 57.1 percent in two playoff games. Kansas City ranked eighth in the NFL in third-down stop rate in the regular season at 36.4 percent and limited Baltimore to three-of-11 in the AFC championship game. Kansas City converted 42.9 percent in the regular season on third down, and San Francisco allowed a 41.7-percent success rate in the regular season. Will Mahomes make magic plays on the money down?

The total is right on target here. Kansas City has allowed more than 24 points in one game this season, and that defense might make the difference in the fourth quarter one more time. If the Chiefs need a score with the game on the line late, then can you trust Mahomes? San Francisco allowed 26 points per game in the playoffs. This will be a 27-24 game either way, and our guess is Mahomes finds a way to win a third Super Bowl.