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Arsenal could hardly be given a tougher path to Wembley but the Champions League quarter-final draw harmed Real’s prospects more than the Gunners’.
Here’s how we have ranked – completely subjectively – the chances of European Cup glory for the eight remaining teams after the quarter-final draw…
8) Borussia Dortmund
Like Atletico, their last eight opponents, Dortmund’s priority might be to ensure they remain in the Champions League for next season. They too sit fourth in their domestic league and could feasibly drop out of the qualifying spots this weekend.
Dortmund were excellent for half an hour against Feyenoord but in the end made hard work of the Eredivisie side. Yes, they topped the group of death to get to the last 16, but this is probably as far as Edin Terzic’s side go, even if they, like Atletico, will be reflecting on the kindest possible draw.
Nope, can’t be any more positive than that.
7) Atletico Madrid
Atletico would be second favourites for any other quarter-final match-up. But Diego Simone was perhaps due a bit of good fortune in this competition.
Atletico will be expected to progress against Borussia Dortmund and will re-familiarise themselves with the underdog tag there on in, especially if their domestic form doesn’t pick up.
Simeone needs a strong Champions League showing to mask recent fortunes in La Liga where they could slip out of the top four if they lose to possible semi-final opponents Barcelona this weekend. Still, if there is one coach who would relish being told he can’t win it, it will be Simeone. And Atletico showed their fortitude by eking through their last-16 tie with the runaway leaders in Italy.
6) Barcelona
The draw could not have been much kinder to Barca, even if they go into their meeting with PSG as second favourites. That being true, it is hard to make a convincing case for them going all the way and winning a European Cup at Wembley for the third time.
They remain in a transitional phase, with La Masia providing plenty of hope for the future, but Lamine Yamal, Pau Cubarsi and Pedri are not ready, at least without the necessary help, to give Xavi a proper send-off in the face of the other powerhouses on the other side of the bracket.
That is not to write them off completely. Robert Lewandowski is back in hot goalscoring form and if they can get back to Wembley, who knows? But it is hope more than belief fuelling what hopes there may be in Catalonia of Champions League glory this year.
5) PSG
The biggest winners from the draw, PSG will now be looking at the last eight and fancying their chances of getting to Wembley for another crack at winning the competition most coveted by their Qatari owners.
Having avoided the four hardest opponents, between PSG and Wembley is a Barcelona side weaker than the one they knocked out three years ago; Borussia Dortmund, who they have already beaten in the group stage; and an Atletico Madrid side just about keeping their head above water in the top four in La Liga.
With a 10-point cushion at the top of Ligue 1, here is an opportunity for Luis Enrique to focus hard on getting to Wembley, where Kylian Mbappe could give PSG the best possible leaving present. Assuming he’s picked.
READ MORE: Thank you Luis Enrique for ‘punishing’ egotistical Kylian Mbappe en route to Real Madrid transfer
4) Real Madrid
Are this Real side any good?
Yes, they are top of La Liga, but the side making it most difficult for them at home is City’s little sister. Have they got it in them to make it any harder for City than they did last year?
City will be wary of Jude Bellingham, of course, and the fact they are leading the way in Spain suggests they are a better side than last year. But they remain without their first-choice goalkeeper and a top-class centre-forward.
Carlo Ancelotti has enough to triumph domestically but a 15th European Cup looks a more remote prospect than it did prior to the draw.
3) Arsenal
After all that in midweek, Arsenal have been given arguably the toughest imaginable path to a possible final, with Bayern in the way first. Should the Gunners beat the Bavarians, then waiting for them in the semi-finals will be the holders and favourites, or the club that knows better than any other how to win this competition.
Taking one game at a time, Bayern might not be the daunting draw they have been in recent years – Arsenal have lost each of their last three against Bayern 5-1 – but the crisis at the Allianz Arena perhaps makes them more dangerous opponents. Their priority will be Arsenal and the Champions League.
The Gunners, though, must juggle. We still don’t know if they have the mettle to go all the way in the Premier League title race so it is anyone’s guess whether they can handle split priorities. And, given their position and pedigree, their domestic commitments will surely occupy most of Mikel Arteta’s headspace.
That said, Arsenal are riding the crest of a wave right now and who knows how long they can maintain that momentum? Bayern is a tie to be relished, not feared, while on their day (or two) they could do a job on City or Real. Then watch them get Simeone’d in the final at Wembley.
At least Ben White won’t get injured on international duty.
Harry Kane and the Arsenal badge
2) Bayern Munich
In the midst of a season-long crisis at Bayern, who trail in the Bundesliga by 10 points, it’s likely to be the Champions League or nothing for Bayern, where ‘nothing’ is unthinkable.
Despite their failings, misfortune and in-fighting, we’re not convinced yet that Bayern have completely forgotten how to win. It is hard to imagine them not getting their collective act together for business time, even if the motivation for many is personal pride.
Thomas Tuchel certainly knows how to win this competition, in similar circumstances with Chelsea. And then there’s Harry Kane. For all the bantz around going to Bayern, the club almost guaranteed silverware, and finishing potless, it would be glorious to see him lift the European Cup at Wembley with his 50th goal of the season before nipping back to Germany to win the Euros.
As it is for Arsenal, it is a perilous path just for Bayern to get to the venue of their fifth European triumph in 2013. But old habits die hard, and Bayern could dig deep – really f***ing deep – for that familiar winning feeling.
1) Manchester City
The favourites, obvs. Nothing in the draw could really have changed that.
Yes, it’s up there with the toughest paths to Wembley that they could have been given but you would be brave/stupid to bet against the holders. City are now the third team to win 10 Champions League matches in succession, and they seem to be putting their foot down after coasting somewhat through the first half of the season.
Being paired with Real has seen the Spaniard’s prospects fall instead of City’s, while Bayern and Arsenal would hold little fear in the semis. Once at Wembley, there is no-one in the other side of the draw that you would logically fancy to clog up Pep’s machine, save for something daft occurring.
Which has happened before. To City. In a Champions League final. But that was before they realised how to win it. Now they have, defending their crown feels more likely than anyone taking it from them.
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