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I imagine having a sports car is pretty fun.
Driving fast with the roof down blaring “Beer For My Horses” by Toby Keith while everyone else stops, stares and wishes they were you. I imagine it’s quite exhilarating.
Until winter comes. Then you really wish you had an SUV.
That’s what the Miami Dolphins are. They are the NFL’s convertible. And instead of saving their money for an upgrade, they got antsy and invested it all into a vehicle that won’t get them where they need to go by paying Tua Tagovailoa.
The Tua Tagovailoa problem
If you just look at stats alone, you’d say Tua is one of the best quarterbacks in football. Over the last two seasons, he’s had a passer rating over 100, thrown 54 touchdowns, is fifth in EPA per play, fourth in adjusted EPA per play, and sixth in CPOE. The Dolphins also led the NFL in total offense in 2023 and were second in points.
However, Miami has been dreadful when it comes to playing the great teams across the NFL. Last season (including playoffs), the Dolphins were 1-6 against playoff teams. In those games, they averaged 16.6 points per game and Tua threw eight touchdowns to seven interceptions.
They weren’t just losing these games, they were getting humiliated. In their six combined losses to the Bills, Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs, they were outscored 203-91. On a per-game basis, that averages out to a 34-15 loss. And if you go back to 2022 (including playoffs), they are 5-12 against teams that finished the year with winning records over the last two seasons. To compare, the Bills are 12-7 against teams that finished with winning records over the last two seasons (including playoffs).
Miami has been all splash and no swim with Tua, especially when the weather gets cold. Miami is 0-11 in their last 11 games when the temperature at kickoff is under 40 degrees. Playing in a conference where you have to go to Cincinnati, Kansas City, Buffalo, Baltimore Pittsburgh, Cleveland, New York etc. in order to get to a Super Bowl, that is more than enough to discount the Dolphins as serious contenders by itself until they prove they can win in the cold.
The lack of winning pedigree against the top tier teams of the NFL combined with Tua’s lackluster performances in those games and the inability to perform in the cold are all massive red flags that Miami ignored while sitting at the negotiating table, and that will all but certainly come back to haunt them when they are sent home every January between now and the end of Tua’s new extension.
NFL coaches don’t fear Tua Tagovailoa
If any of the previous evidence was damning enough for Tua, the opinions of NFL coaches should be.
In a piece for Sports Illustrated written by Matt Verderame, multiple NFL defensive coordinators are quoted as saying that Tua isn’t feared around the league, one of which discussed how they prepare to play the Dolphins and how much of that prep is allocated towards stopping Tua.
“The best way to look at it is, you prepare for the speed at skill positions and Mike McDaniel, and then Tua,” one coordinator said. “He doesn’t like to get hit or read coverage. When is he at his best? RPOs and the quick game. Next question to ask yourself is how many quarterbacks would you take before him?”
The last part of that quote is maybe the most important. Are you taking Tua over Trevor Lawrence? Kyler Murray? Hell, Brock Purdy? I’m not. Overall, I’d take 18 quarterbacks over Tua, and depending on how Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Anthony Richardson look this season, that number will probably climb to 21.
The Dolphins shouldn’t have handcuffed themselves to Tua simply because his numbers are gaudy. Look at how many teams in recent memory have done that because they felt like their hands were tied. The Jacksonville Jaguars did it with Blake Bortles and the New York Giants did it with Daniel Jones. While Tua is better than those two, at least Bortles and Jones can say they’ve won playoff games.
The Dolphins have had the league’s most explosive offense in the regular season with two of the best receivers in football for two years, and they have as many playoff wins as you the reader do to show for it. And while moving on may have been a risk, it would have been better to take that leap of faith than to marry a quarterback that lowers their ceiling.
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