The 29th season of the WNBA has arrived, and the collective betting interest in the league seems higher than ever.
Even the offerings on BetMGM have increased — whereas once the championship and awards were the only futures markets available, now bettors can wager on the over/under for each team’s win totals.
Of course, the proverbial cream is still expected to rise to the top. Perennial powerhouses like the Aces and Liberty have projections in the range of 30-33 wins, while up-and-coming squads like Caitlin Clark’s Fever have over/under amounts closer to 20 wins.
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The question, as with any futures betting: where is the value? Do Las Vegas and New York remain strong plays, or have they been priced too high due to the rising liabilities those squads represent for sportsbooks?
Let’s take a look at the WNBA win total projections for every team on BetMGM, and highlight some value bets, sleeper picks, and fades for the 2024 season.
WNBA 2024 over/under win total odds
TeamOverUnderAces32.5 (-125)32.5 (+105)Liberty30.5 (-110)30.5 (-110)Storm24.5 (-125)24.5 (+105)Sun24.5 (+100)24.5 (-120)Wings20.5 (-120)19.5 (+100)Fever19.5 (-110)19.5 (-110)Mercury18.5 (-125)18.5 (+105)Dream18.5 (+120)18.5 (-145)Lynx16.5 (-115)16.5 (+115)Sky12.5 (-115)12.5 (-105)Mystics11.5 (-115)11.5 (-105)Sparks9.5 (-140)9.5 (+115)
WNBA 2024 over/under win total odds: Predictions
Las Vegas Aces (Over/under 32.5): Fade
Las Vegas has established itself as a perennial contender, coming off a back-to-back championship runs. A’Ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, and company have the most talented roster from top to bottom, and they’re coming off a 34-win season in 2024. However, this is a fade.
The league got better — some might say significantly better — this offseason. The influx of talent from the 2024 WNBA Draft class should bump up parity and keep teams like the Aces running away with win totals in the mid-to-high 30s. And remember, this franchise only bagged 26 wins two seasons ago!
That said, if Vegas remains healthy all season and sees the young rookie class as a motivating factor, 33 wins could still be very much attainable. It’s a fade solely because these odds offer very little value one way or the other.
New York Liberty (O/U 30.5): OVER (-110)
Now, this OVER feels like a strong value. The Liberty keep getting better and better, and they finished as the runner-up in the 2023 WNBA Finals. This roster is stacked, with reigning MVP Breanna Stewart and 2021 MVP Jonquel Jones serving as the main weapons but Sabrina Ionescu, Courtney Vandersloot, and Betnijah Laney comprising an elite supporting cast. The Liberty could easily overtake the Aces as the juggernaut of the WNBA this year.
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Seattle Storm (O/U 24.5): OVER (-125)
The Storm improved mightily last season, going 22-14 thanks in large part to the pure-scoring ability of Jewell Loyd. They signed 2016 MVP Nneka Ogwumike and six-time All-Star Skylar Diggins-Smith this offseason, positioning them for another big step forward this season. It would feel like a slam-dunk bet if Gabby Williams was expected to play this season, but even if Williams doesn’t return due to the league’s prioritization rule, Seattle has a great chance of reaching 25 wins.
Connecticut Sun (O/U 24.5): OVER (-120)
Coming off a 27-win season with stud front court staple Brionna Jones recovered from her Achilles injury, the value with the OVER seems incredibly strong here. Connecticut has strong coaching, great veteran leadership, and plenty of scoring, so the Sun should be able to withstand some of their key offseason losses. Bet on Connecticut retaining its form as one of the top teams in the WNBA in 2024.
Dallas Wings (O/U 20.5): OVER (-120)
With its main core returning, the Wings seem like a great bet to take another step forward after going 18-18 last season. Dallas takes care of the ball, plays contenders really tough, and uses its size well. The Wings closed out the 2023 season going 7-3, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them start this season on a similar streak as many other young teams take some time to adapt to their changed environments.
Indiana Fever (O/U 19.5): UNDER (-110)
Caitlin Clark and the Fever have understandably already generated plenty of betting buzz, but it’s important to understand that every rebuild takes some time to develop. While the majority of the betting world smashes the OVER here, there could be strong value in the UNDER coming off a 13-win season. That said, come playoff time, it would be wise to avoid betting against Clark, Aaliyah Boston, and the Fever.
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Phoenix Mercury (O/U 18.5): Fade
The Mercury made plenty of moves in the offseason, highlighted by Natasha Cloud, Kahleah Copper, and Bec Allen. However, Phoenix has a new-look roster, a new coach, and new ownership — that’s a lot of things to get used to in a short amount of time. The Mercury could wind up finishing similar to the superteam Suns, their NBA counterparts in the Valley.
Atlanta Dream (O/U 18.5): UNDER (-145)
Tina Charles and the Dream have been a very popular preseason bet, which explains an over/under of 18.5 wins for a team coming off a 14-win campaign. With roster changes and a questions about the team’s identity, the UNDER with some juice feels like a better wager than the OVER with plus odds.
Minnesota Lynx (O/U 16.5): OVER (-115)
The Lynx added Natisha Hiedeman and Courtney Williams in the offseason to complement 2023 breakout Napheesa Collier, and as a result it feels like Minnesota represents a solid value on the OVER. This is a well-coached team and well-constructed core, so 17 feels like an embarrassingly low projection.
Chicago Sky (O/U 12.5): Fade
The Sky have far too many question marks to trust in either direction. When you lose your franchise player in Kahleah Copper and basically get torn down from the center, you start becoming a tough free-agency destination and in what feels like an instant, you’re looking at the top of the draft class for the following year. The league got stronger this season, but the Sky suffered the biggest fall.
Washington Mystics (O/U 11.5): OVER (-115)
The Mystics have a better team than this 11.5-win projection suggests, and there could be some value on the OVER as long as it doesn’t accumulate too much juice. For now, at -115 it seems just fine for a modest futures bet.
Los Angeles Sparks (O/U 9.5): UNDER
The Sparks are in total rebuild mode, and of course before you rebuild you have to completely tear it down. Los Angeles has little to no offense in a league that continues to get better defensively, so Sparks fans should be eyeing the long-term future more so than the short-term futures market.
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