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On Jan. 23, we’ll find out who will be joining him from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America Hall of Fame ballot. The official announcement will air live at 6 p.m. ET from Cooperstown on MLB Network.
The question isn’t “if” anyone else will join Leyland on stage this summer in upstate New York, when this year’s class is inducted on July 21. It’s “how many?”
Here are answers to the most pressing questions heading into the big announcement (vote percentages among publicly revealed ballots are as of Jan. 15):
Exclusive coverage of the 2024 BBWAA Hall of Fame announcement will begin on Jan. 23 at 4 p.m. ET on MLB Network, leading up to the reveal of the results by Hall of Fame president Josh Rawitch at 6 p.m.
The returnees (with 2023 election percentage listed in parentheses) are:
Bobby Abreu (15.4%), Carlos Beltrán (46.5%), Mark Buehrle (10.8%), Todd Helton (72.2%), Torii Hunter (6.9%), Andruw Jones (58.1%), Andy Pettitte (17%), Manny Ramirez (33.2%), Alex Rodriguez (35.7%), Francisco Rodriguez (10.8%), Jimmy Rollins (12.9%), Gary Sheffield (55%), Omar Vizquel (19.5%) and Billy Wagner (68.1%).
The first-timers are: José Bautista, Adrián Beltré, Bartolo Colon, Adrián González, Matt Holliday, Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer, Brandon Phillips, José Reyes, James Shields, Chase Utley and David Wright.
Who has the best chance at election?
Beltré, by far, has the best chance of being elected in this, his first year on the ballot. Among the public ballots that have been revealed in Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame ballot tracker, Beltré has received 98.9% of the vote.
Meanwhile, Mauer’s numbers among voters who have revealed their ballots so far have been surprisingly strong for his first ballot. The Twins’ great has received 84.4% of the vote.
Two other candidates seem to have a chance of election this year — Helton and Wagner. Both have seen their support among the electorate jump significantly in recent years. Helton’s total took a quantum leap in 2023, going from 52% to 72.2%. Wagner’s increased from 51% to 68.1%. Helton has received 82.8% of this year’s publicly revealed vote so far, and Wagner has garnered 79.6%.
Given that private ballots tend to bring percentages down, it could be a close call for Mauer, Helton and Wagner. While Mauer has nine years of eligibility on the ballot remaining if he doesn’t make it to Cooperstown this year, and Helton has four, Wagner only has one remaining.
Who is the most interesting first-timer?
Utley’s candidacy is intriguing, as is how much support he seems to be getting in his first year on the ballot. According to Thibodaux’s tracker, Utley is at 42.5%.
According to Anthony Calamis, who works with Thibodaux in tracking ballots, there has only been one Hall of Fame candidate on the BBWAA ballot to receive more than 40% on his first ballot but not eventually be elected to Cooperstown (excluding current candidates) — Steve Garvey.
Decades ago, Utley’s numbers may have placed him in danger of falling off the ballot entirely by not garnering the requisite 5% to remain eligible — after all, among players with more than 250 homers and 150 steals in a career are names like Dale Murphy, Joe Carter, Ellis Burks, Dave Parker, Darryl Strawberry, Bobby Bonds and Eric Davis.
None of them are in the Hall of Fame. But now that we have more tools at our disposal than ever before to evaluate players, Utley has a real shot, particularly because he was not only one of the best offensive second basemen of his era, but also one of the best in the field.
Much of Utley’s 64.5 career bWAR comes from his stellar defense, and the list of players other than Utley who are not in the Hall of Fame despite having at least 250 homers, 150 steals and 64 bWAR is short: Barry Bonds, Rodriguez (currently on the ballot), Beltrán (currently on the ballot), Mike Trout and Mookie Betts.
Is anyone on his last ballot?
It’s the last chance on the BBWAA ballot for Sheffield. One of four players in AL/NL history to hit at least 500 home runs and steal at least 250 bases in his career (along with Bonds, Rodriguez and Willie Mays), Sheffield has seen his support rise in recent years, but his name was mentioned in the Mitchell Report investigating the use of performance-enhancing drugs, and that has had a significant impact on his candidacy.
Sheffield was a nine-time All-Star, a five-time Silver Slugger Award winner and won the NL batting title in 1992. He finished among the top 10 in MVP voting six times and helped the Marlins win the 1997 World Series.
Sheffield finished with a career OPS+ of 140 and 60.5 bWAR — there are only seven other non-active players with that high of an OPS+ and bWAR who aren’t in the Hall of Fame — Bonds, Albert Pujols (not yet eligible), Rodriguez, Mark McGwire, Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera (not yet eligible) and Shoeless Joe Jackson.
Whether the connection to PEDs will keep Sheffield out of the Hall of Fame remains to be seen, but with this being his last chance to get there via the writers’ ballot, he’s looking at an uphill climb. He’s tracking at 74.7%.
Beltrán, Jones and Wright are three other candidates to keep an eye on.
It will be interesting to see how close to election Beltrán gets on his second ballot. While it doesn’t appear he’ll be inducted this year, he has a strong chance in the years ahead given how he’s trending.
Beltrán’s case is strong by the numbers, but his involvement in the Astros’ sign-stealing operation a few years back has hurt the number that counts the most — his percentage of the vote. Still, he’s tracking at 66.1% among publicly revealed ballots with eight years of eligibility remaining.
Jones has seen his support surge in recent years, and he’s at 71.0% in Thibodaux’s tracker. But time is running out for the former 10-time Gold Glove Award-winning center fielder — he’s got three more years on the ballot.
Wright is in danger of falling off the ballot in his first year. With at least 5% needed to avoid that fate, he’s tracking at 7.0% among public ballots. Over his first 10 seasons, Wright was well on his way toward Cooperstown with 222 home runs, a career .888 OPS and seven All-Star selections.
But injuries derailed him after that, particularly a spinal ailment that brought his career to a premature end. Still, Wright’s resume is similar to that of Hall of Famer Kirby Puckett, and many are hoping his case will get more of a look in the years ahead.
When does the 2024 induction ceremony take place?
It will be held on Sunday, July 21, at the Clark Sports Center in Cooperstown, N.Y.
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