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Vanke CEO Yu Liang is outpacing his competitors despite a 43% drop in Q1 sales (Getty Images)
With its bonds falling to all-time lows this week amid a deepening liquidity crisis, China Vanke is reported to be in discussions to sell its stake in industrial fund manager and developer GLP, as its scrambles to pay down $14 billion in debt after its contracted sales fell 43 percent in the first quarter.
The Shenzhen-based developer is in talks with potential buyers, including Guangdong Holdings Ltd, an investment body controlled by the government of the southern Chinese province and a Tianjin based company to buy out its interest in Singapore-incorporated GLP, which ranks among the world’s largest industrial real estate developers and fund managers with 84 million square metres (904 million square feet) of warehouses in its portfolio, according to an account by Bloomberg on Wednesday.
Vanke in 2017 made a deal for a 21.4 percent stake in GLP as the biggest investor in a consortium involving co-investors Hillhouse Capital, HOPU Investments and an affiliate of Bank of China which bought out Singapore sovereign fund GIC’s stake in the company. That deal, which closed in 2018, is said to have valued Vanke’s stake at $2.5 billion. GLP representatives declined to comment on the reported transaction and China Vanke representatives had not yet responded to inquiries from Mingtiandi at the time of publication.
In a meeting over the weekend Vanke is said to have assured investment analysts that it is preparing RMB 130 billion ($18 billion) in assets as collateral for fresh bank loans as the company’s shares have lost more than 30 percent of their value on the Shenzhen exchange so far this year. No agreement on the potential sale of the GLP stake has been reached at this point, according to the Bloomberg article.
Buried in Market Avalanche
Long praised as the most competent of China’s major developers, Vanke one year ago was the subject of stories noting its ability to survive the country’s real estate crisis as competitors like China Evergrande or Sunac China slipped into default.
Vanke acquired a 21.4% stake in GLP in 2018
With home sales in China now having fallen each month since May of last year, homebuyer reluctance has demolished the finances of even the sturdiest of the country’s builders.
For the full year of 2023, China Vanke, which is controlled by government-owned Shenzhen Metro, ranked second among the mainland’s largest developers with contracted sales of RMB 375.5 billion, despite a 10.6 percent decline from its performance a year earlier.
Those full year sales figures conceal the ongoing erosion in confidence among China’s homebuyers, with Vanke’s RMB 57.96 billion in contracted sales in the first three months of this year falling RMB 43.44 billion short of its performance during the same period in 2023, according to company statements.
Vanke’s disappointing performance still had the company outpacing its competitors, with China’s 100 largest builders suffering an average decline in contracted sales during the first quarter of 47.5 percent from the same period in 2023, according to statistics compiled by China Real Estate Information Corp (CRIC).
The ongoing slide in China’s home sales comes despite government measures to prop up the market including loosening home purchase restrictions and boosting lending to the sector.
In reporting its 2023 results last month, China Vanke surprised analysts by stating that its net income attributable to shareholders fell 46 percent to RMB 12.2 billion last year. The company vowed at the time to trim $14 billion in debt.
Negative Outlook
S&P Global downgraded Vanke’s credit rating earlier this month to BB+ from BBB+ and slapped it with a negative outlook, noting its weakening competitive position and rising leverage.
While the credit rating agency expressed confidence that Vanke will be able to meet its debt maturities this year, it stated concerns that the pall over the industry could hurt the developer’s revenue potential.
“The negative outlook on China Vanke reflects our expectation that the company’s contracted sales could decline further over the next 12 months amid a prolonged industry downturn. China Vanke’s financial position could also weaken if the company fails to execute its asset disposal plans,” S&P said on 10 April.
The ratings agency predicts that China Vanke’s contracted sales could drop another 25 to 28 percent this year, compared to 2023, which would represent a 60 percent decline from its 2020 performance.
Vanke’s 3.53 percent onshore notes maturing in 2027 fell around 8 percent in trading on Wednesday to settle at an all-time low, while the company’s A-shares are down 4.31 percent on Shenzhen exchange in the past five days.
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