Chinese carmakers to become dominant globally despite tariffs

A BYD Seal all-electric sedan was displayed at a trade show in Costa Rica on March 24, 2023. Credit: BYD

Chinese automakers will over time become a dominant force worldwide despite the US and Europe imposing extra duties on their electric vehicles, consultants AlixPartners said on Wednesday, highlighting that China’s vehicle makers are on track to grab over 30% of the global market by 2030.

Chinese brands’ market share in Europe is unlikely to reach the previously anticipated percentage of 15% by 2030, as forecasted a year ago, instead doubling from 6% to 12%, but stronger growth is expected in other regions. Chinese brands could claim market shares 31% and 28% in Southeast Asia and Latin America respectively by the end of the decade, up from the 19% in each estimated last year, figures from the consultancy’s annual Global Automotive Outlook showed.

Many Chinese auto majors have pivoted their focus to overseas markets beyond the EU in recent months, taking advantage of fewer regulatory barriers in, for example, Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Geely subsidiary Zeekr plans to expand its footprint from 25 to more than 50 global markets by the end of this year, despite retaining “very big ambitions” for Europe, executives told investors last month. Great Wall Motor is shutting down its European headquarters in Munich, Germany, but says it still has plans to set up a factory in the region.

“Chinese automakers will definitely lose some competitive edge in EVs as they move to implement localized manufacturing and sales operations in Europe,” Stephen Dyer, a co-leader for AlixPartners’s Greater China business and head of its Asia automotive practice, told reporters on Wednesday in Shanghai. “However, they still have cost advantages over foreign competitors thanks to a shortened vehicle development time, a much lower labor cost, along with an intense corporate culture,” Dyer added, speaking in Mandarin Chinese (our translation).

An employee from a Chinese EV maker works as many as 140 hours in a month when a new car is launched, compared with only 20 hours worked by a counterpart at a global auto major, AlixPartners told clients in its latest outlook. Meanwhile, the average vehicle development time for a Chinese EV model has been cut in half to 20 months compared with legacy brands, mainly by reducing the number of physical tests and sending out software updates to fix problems.

The European Union’s additional tariffs on Chinese-made EVs are forcing Chinese majors to set up their own assembly operations on the continent. BYD on July 4 opened its first overseas passenger car factory in Thailand while planning to invest $1 billion in another one in Turkey and to establish a $30 million battery plant in Hungary. Chery in April reached a joint venture deal with Spain’s EV Motors to produce cars at a former Nissan plant in Barcelona later this year, Reuters reported. At least 12 new regional plants are being planned by Chinese car manufacturers, Dyer said.

“What we see is we’ve had a brand premium that is comparable to or even slightly more than global automakers in some overseas markets, such as Southeast Asia,” Wang Hui, a vice president of Changan Automobile, told this year’s China Auto Forum in Shanghai on Friday (our translation). The state-controlled automaker last October announced plans to build a $241.7 million plant in Rayong, Thailand, aiming to commence operations later this year with a capacity of 100,000 EVs annually.

Wang added that Chinese firms should take a long-term mindset of “being humble and cautious” while making efforts to increase tax revenue and boost job growth for the local economies in where they operate.

READ MORE: EU anti-subsidy EV probe: What Chinese automakers have done in Europe and what’s next

Jill Shen is Shanghai-based technology reporter. She covers Chinese mobility, autonomous vehicles, and electric cars. Connect with her via e-mail: [email protected] or Twitter: @jill_shen_sh
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