ECB Shouldn’t Rush Further Rate Cuts After June, Muller Says

The European Central Bank mustn’t rush into further interest rate cuts after a likely first step in June, Governing Council member Madis Muller said.

Author of the article:

Bloomberg News

Mark Schroers and Alexander Weber

Published Apr 20, 2024 • 1 minute read

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(Bloomberg) — The European Central Bank mustn’t rush into further interest rate cuts after a likely first step in June, Governing Council member Madis Muller said.

“We should be careful not to move too quickly with the loosening of monetary policy and wait until the data gives us the necessary confidence that inflation is getting sustainably back to the target,” the Estonian central bank chief said in an interview.

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Geopolitical tensions and the potential for higher oil and energy prices “add upside risks to the inflation outlook,” he said in Washington, where he’s attending the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings. “We need to remain vigilant.”

With consumer-price gains in the euro area now within sight of the 2% target, officials seem to agree that a first cut in interest rates will probably be delivered in June. How many will follow and how quickly is still open and more controversial.

Muller said “the broad consensus” to begin lowering borrowing costs in two months “is well justified.” After that all depends on incoming data.

“If the economic developments end up being in line with what we expect, it’s reasonable to have a few further cuts by the end of the year,” he said.

Muller sees “a certain rationale” in focusing more on meetings in which the ECB gets the quarterly projections from its staff, “as they allow for more thorough discussions.”

“But one cannot at the same time exclude the possibility of new data giving us sufficient confidence to take policy decisions also in interim meetings.”

In any case, he prefers moving by steps of 25 basis points.“I don’t think that we are behind the curve,” he said. “So I don’t see a need to think about cutting by 50 basis points — there are benefits to moving gradually.”

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