Preview: Northern Ireland vs. Slovenia

Sports Mole previews Tuesday’s Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Northern Ireland and Slovenia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Fresh from respective 3-0 wins in their most recent Euro 2024 qualifiers, Northern Ireland and Slovenia prepare for battle on matchday eight in Group H on Tuesday.

The Green and White Army broke a painful losing run in a three-goal success over San Marino last time out, while their in-form visitors put Finland to the sword with consummate ease.

Match preview

Northern Ireland attacker Paul Smyth channelled his inner Paolo Di Canio and Simone Biles during the opening five minutes of Saturday’s meeting with San Marino, breaking the deadlock with a stunning scissor-kick volley before whipping out the acrobatic celebration.

The world’s worst-ranked nation were ostensibly set for another chastening afternoon when Josh Magennis doubled the hosts’ lead in the 11th minute, but while Michael O’Neill’s side breached the San Marino backline a couple more times, the offside flag spared their visitors’ blushes.

However, Northern Ireland would eventually find their way through again in the 81st minute, as Conor McMenamin registered his first senior international goal to rubber-stamp a much-needed victory for the Green and White Army, who had been subjected to five successive losses prior to that Belfast triumph.

Perennial basement boys San Marino are the only team to have fallen to Northern Ireland’s superiority in Group H, though, and O’Neill’s fifth-placed side are no longer in contention for a top-two finish owing to Slovenia and Denmark’s victories; the duo sit 10 points clear of the Green and White Army with three games remaining.

The playoffs could yet provide a saving grace for Northern Ireland, who are now on the hunt for back-to-back victories in any competition for the first time since September 2021, but the recent exploits of their visitors makes such a scenario appear unlikely.

Slovenian starboy Benjamin Sesko may have donned a protective cap after taking a blow to the head against Finland, but it was the Scandinavian side who were ultimately left battered and bruised by the RB Leipzig man, whose first-half brace set his nation on their way to a resounding triumph.

Sesko drew first blood – no pun intended – from the penalty spot before doubling his tally for the afternoon thanks to a sweeping counter-attack, and with the clock winding down in added time, Erik Janza made sure of the result for the Group H leaders.

Atletico Madrid’s Jan Oblak enjoyed a quiet evening at the other end of the field as Matjaz Kek’s team moved onto 16 points from seven games – sharing that total with Denmark, whom they are keeping at bay thanks to a slightly superior goal difference as an unforeseen battle for top spot heats up.

Slovenia – who have not qualified for the Euros since 2000 – cannot guarantee their place in Germany no matter what transpires this week, so a winner-takes-all battle with Denmark next month could very well await Kek’s outfit, who travel to Belfast having won each of their last three matches while scoring at least three goals on each occasion.

The first of those triumphs was a 4-2 beating of the Green and White Army in Ljubljana back in September, where Manchester United’s Jonny Evans scored at both ends of the field as Slovenia ended a four-game winless run against Northern Ireland, who had kept four clean sheets throughout that unbeaten sequence before being carved open at will last month.

Northern Ireland Euro Champ Qualifying form:

Slovenia Euro Champ Qualifying form:

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Team News

During the dying embers of Northern Ireland’s triumph over San Marino, Middlesbrough defender Paddy McNair needlessly picked up his third booking of qualifying so far, ruling the 28-year-old out of the visit of the Slovenians through suspension.

McNair’s dismissal will have no effect on the Jonny Evans-Dan Ballard central pairing for Northern Ireland – assuming the latter shakes off a thigh niggle – as the Boro man was instead deployed in the midfield trident at Windsor Park, so either George Saville or Isaac Price could now be recalled.

Preston North End’s Ali McCann pulled out of the squad before Saturday’s victory due to injury, but O’Neill has no other concerns to contend with and should promote first-choice stopper Bailey Peacock-Farrell back into the XI over Conor Hazard.

Meanwhile, Slovenia striker Sesko was given the all-clear to continue in the first half against Finalnd after sustaining his head wound, but he was eventually withdrawn on the hour mark, raising a few fears about his availability for Tuesday’s crucial encounter.

Bordeaux’s Zan Vipotnik is on standby should Sesko not earn the green light to partner 10-goal man Andraz Sporar in attack, but Kek should otherwise have an identical set of options at his disposal for the trip to Belfast.

Thirty-four-year-old midfielder Jasmin Kurtic won his 86th Slovenia cap off the bench on Saturday and is 16 away from becoming his nation’s record appearance-maker, but he may have to make do with another substitute cameo on Tuesday.

Northern Ireland possible starting lineup:
Peacock-Farrell; Hume, Ballard, Evans, Lewis; Saville, S. Charles, Thompson; Smyth, Magennis, Taylor

Slovenia possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Karnicnik, Bijol, Blazic, Janza; Mlakar, Elsnik, Gnezda Cerin, Stojanovic; Sporar, Sesko

We say: Northern Ireland 1-2 Slovenia

Defences did not come out on top when Northern Ireland and Slovenia locked horns a few weeks ago, and a similar tale should unfold in Belfast, where the visitors have a lot more to fight for than the Green and White Army.

Doubts over Sesko’s condition could harm Slovenia’s prospects of back-to-back wins over Northern Ireland, but the visitors have found goals from numerous sources in qualifying and should fight fire with even more fire to maintain their top-two standing.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.

Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data

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