Australia: Difficult decision lies ahead for the RBA

Lee Sue Ann, Economist at UOB Group, comments on the upcoming RBA gathering on August 1.

Key Takeaways

Headline CPI came in at 0.8% q/q for 2Q23, lower than expectations of 1.0% q/q, and the reading of 1.4% q/q in 1Q23. Compared to the same period a year ago, CPI rose 6.0% y/y, also lower than expectations of 6.2% y/y, and the 7.0% y/y print in 1Q23.

Meanwhile, employment rose by 32,600 positions in Jun, following a 76,500 surge in May. The participation rate remained around record-highs of 66.8%. Strong job growth saw the jobless rate unchanged at 3.5%.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is aware that rates are “clearly restrictive”, and there is a chance they remain on pause at 4.10%. However, we look for a further 25bps rate hike, keeping in mind that inflation rates remain substantially above the RBA’s target band of 2-3%. The decision on 1 Aug, will nonetheless, be a close call.

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