Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at Société Générale, analyzes USD outlook after a deluge of softer-than-expected US economic data last week.
Underlying macro story is not universally as Dollar-negative as last week’s moves might suggest
Positioning may be the Dollar’s worst enemy here. CFTC data show USD longs persisted into last week. By contrast, the underlying macro story isn’t universally as Dollar-negative as last week’s moves might suggest.
With the market pricing an earlier ECB cut now, and UK Q3 GDP expected to have fallen, I’m not overly excited about shorting DXY (or selling USD against GBP or EUR).
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