Sharemarket could be helped by lower NZ dollar

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NZX sign
Photo: RNZ / Angus Dreaver

A lower New Zealand dollar may help revive the local sharemarket, which has had a lacklustre first half of the year.

The benchmark NZX 50 index is up 2.6 percent so far this year, but after a strong start – which saw it hit a 12-month high in February – it has faded amid modest company performances, rising high interest rates and a softening economy here and in China, our key trading partner.

Devon Funds head of retail Greg Smith said the NZX did not have many listed tech sector companies, which was a feature of booming overseas markets such as Nasdaq, which has risen close to 30 percent so far this year. Other key markets in Europe and Asia have posted double-digit gains, and even Australia has managed a 4 percent rise.

“Obviously there’s a lot of frenzy around AI (artificial intelligence),” Smith said, referring to AI firm Nvidia, which saw its share price rise 139 percent over the past six months to become a trillion-dollar company (NZ$1.7 trillion).

“We don’t really have companies with that sort of exposure in New Zealand. So yeah, we’ve certainly missed out on that.”

The New Zealand market was also suffering from companies leaving the market through takeover, such as Pushpay Holdings; or headed to the ASX, as the Evolve early childhood group was doing. On top of that, there has been a dearth of new listings.

Milford Asset Management portfolio manager Sam Trethewey said investors needed to be patient amid signs of improving market conditions.

“It depends on how things like migration, interest rate and the inflation picture play out. They will have a very big bearing on the course of the year.”

The market would also be supported by an easing in the Reserve Bank monetary policy, he said.

Weakness in the New Zealand dollar would also help support listed exporting companies, such as Fisher & Paykel Healthcare, as well as make New Zealand stocks more attractive to overseas investors.

Most forecasts for New Zealand dollar were for it to hold around 60 US cents, but KiwiBank saw it falling as low as 55 US cents by the end of the year.