Palestinians inspect the destruction following Israeli airstrikes on Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip on October 10. Photo by Ismael Mohamad/UPI | License Photo
BEIRUT, Lebanon, Oct. 10 (UPI) — The daring, sophisticated, large-scale Hamas attack that caught Israel and the world by surprise has plunged the troubled Middle East region into the unknown.
Fears range from the destruction of Gaza, Hamas and the Palestinian cause to an escalation into a regional war involving Lebanon’s Hezbollah, military and political analysts told UPI.
“Operation Al-Aqsa Flood,” which started Saturday morning, was “du jamais vu” (never seen ) during the long years of Israel-Palestinian military conflict. Hamas’ well-calculated plan met with an Israeli intelligence failure, a slow response by its military and overconfidence in its technology capability in detecting and countering missiles fired by the militant groups.
So far, 900 Israelis have been killed, 2,400 wounded and as many as 150 have been kidnapped to Gaza. The Palestinian casualty toll has risen to 780 deaths, including 140 children, and 4,200 wounded.
“Obviously, Israel underestimated Hamas … and the benefits it could get from the collaboration and training from Hezbollah, the technology they could be receiving from Iran and Hezbollah,” said Riad Kahwaji, who heads the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis in Dubai. “We saw a lot of techniques devised by Hezbollah being duplicated by Hamas and other groups supported by Iran.”
Even the $1 billion high-tech security fence that Israel built along Gaza was easily crossed by Hamas fighters, who penetrated Israeli territory through land, sea and air, using motorbikes and motorized paragliders.
“Basically, the Israelis have become lazy in revising their old plans, standard procedures and they underestimated their foes. They are paying dearly for that,” Kahwaji told UPI.
He explained that Hamas, like Hezbollah, has been practicing what they called “strategic patience,” building capabilities even as Israel made pre-emptive strikes targeting Hezbollah inside Syria and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Surprise weapons stockpile
In its fourth day, the Hamas attack revealed another military dimension: The militant group has many more missiles than suspected.
“We thought they had 20,000 to 30,000 missiles, but they say they have much, much more missiles that could reach not only Tel Aviv but also northern Israel,” said Hisham Jaber, a Lebanese military expert and former army general, referring to accounts by a Hamas leader he met. “That was a surprise to all.”
The analysts believe Hamas acted on its own terms — not Iran’s — in the timing and execution of the attack. The militant group has vowed to continue the battle till the end, being prepared for all possible scenarios.
However, the main question is what happens next?
With Hamas missiles raining on Israeli areas and Israel relentlessly pounding the Gaza Strip, the Israeli army is preparing for a ground offensive against the densely populated strip to uproot Hamas.
By calling up 300,000 reservists for the first time in 40 years, Israel formally declares war against Hamas with full support from the United States, which dispatched an aircraft carrier group to the eastern Mediterranean.
“Israel would be able to invade Gaza technically, if we look at the balance of power, but at what cost?” Kahwaji said. “It is going to be a very costly campaign and the collateral damage will be horrendous. The Israelis will likely use scorched-earth tactics to minimize casualties among its troops.”
The target would be to break down the Hamas infrastructure, reach the underground tunnels, where it has its factories, destroy its depots, capture and eliminate its leadership and fighters.
“Would this succeed, I don’t know. It all depends on how the international opinion will react to this every day and what kind of backing Israel will continue to have,” he said. “Also, what about the Middle East, Arab countries especially, if the campaign takes too long and is very costly to the Palestinians? What will be the impact then?”
Jaber believes the Israelis will divide Gaza into four or five sectors and launch independent military operations on each.
Will Hezbollah engage?
Moreover, it is yet to be seen whether Hezbollah would engage in the war. So far, it has shown support of Hamas by launching calculated and limited attacks across the border.
“Hezbollah will open the south Lebanon front in only two cases: If Iran is attacked or a military offensive is launched against Lebanon,” Jaber told UPI.
Will Israel make such a move and drag Hezbollah into the war? Would it be able to do it at this stage?
Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, believes so, arguing that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to change the Middle East.
“Hezbollah is much stronger than Hamas. If Hamas carried out such an attack and inflicted all these casualties, what will happen to Israel if Hezbollah does the same?” Khashan told UPI. “They want to prevent the same thing from happening in the future. They want to get rid of them [Hezbollah and Hamas] once and for all.”
After the humiliation it suffered at the hands of Hamas, the Israelis don’t care about casualties, he said.
But even if Israel reoccupies Gaza and uproots Hamas, what’s next? Who is willing to handle such a burden?
“Possibly, they could get Egypt to administer it, but Egypt doesn’t want Gaza,” Khashan said. “Israelis could stay in Gaza for some time and could bring back the Fatah movement.”
In short, Israel wants to remove “all the hurdles” in the way of normalization with the Arab countries, especially a historical deal with Saudi Arabia.
“Thus, we could be approaching a full-scale war in the region,” Khashan said. “This is what Netanyahu wants, but would the U.S. allow him? I don’t know.”
Kahwaji agrees that war could escalate into a regional conflict, arguing that the United States, like Israel, is shocked with the efficiency of the Hamas fighters and are more alarmed about what Hezbollah could inflict on Israel from the north.
What is clear is that Iran will not join the war, as it has its own proxies in the region to do so. The purpose of having Hezbollah, Hamas and all these groups is to spare Iranian territories any direct war with the United States, the analysts said.
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