The Chicago Cubs learned the hard way last season how difficult and taxing it can be to dig out of a hole to stay in the postseason hunt.
As the offense continues its six-week flounder, especially with runners in scoring position, it’s creating an eerily similar and concerning trend as the Cubs approach the midpoint of the season. The Cubs’ 34-38 record entering Monday matches their mark last year through 72 games, except they feature a negative run differential (minus-17) instead of a positive run differential (plus-17).
The timing of poor play nearly aligns with the timeframe of last year’s costly slump, and as president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer acknowledged Monday afternoon, the offensive challenges are almost indistinguishable.
“When we came out of those struggles we hit,” Hoyer said. “You go back and we were scoring eight, nine runs a game, we were opening games up and I think that’s what’s ultimately going to lead to us getting out of this rut this time is going to be scoring runs. We’re going to have to do it the way we did last year.”
Their efforts to recover from falling 10 games under .500 took a toll, which concerns Hoyer if the Cubs keep dropping series. Being in chase mode makes it hard to give players days off and creates no margin for error.
“I hope not to relive that but, yeah, we need to start playing well soon to get out of that,” Hoyer said.
That it is again the offense falling short during this bad stretch makes the struggles particularly frustrating for Hoyer and the organization. Their futility with runners in scoring position has been a maddening reoccurrence since the beginning of May. In that span, the Cubs are batting an MLB-worst .174 with RISP while ranking 10th in plate appearances in such situations. And when they have made contact in those prime run-scoring opportunities, the Cubs aren’t doing damage: their meager .268 slugging percentage is easily the worst in the majors, 45 points below the 29th-ranked team, St. Louis.
To get the offense going, the team needs more from their sluggers in the middle of the lineup. Fans may be hoping the Cubs call up one of their top Triple-A hitters, like Owen Caissie, in hopes of jump-starting the lineup, but that does not seem to be an avenue they are considering.
Chicago Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer speaks with the media in the Cubs dugout before the start of a game against the San Francisco Giants at Wrigley Field on Monday, June 17, 2024. (Stacey Wescott/Chicago Tribune)
“Certainly we have those conversations, we talk about how they’re doing all the time and what’s left in their development,” Hoyer said. “But I don’t see any one young bat coming up here and sparking the offense. … Everyone wants immediate change, but ultimately the immediate change is this group starts hitting the way we did in April.”
For the pitching staff, the offensive slump puts unsustainable pressure on them to perfect. This becomes even more heightened for the relievers, most notably in the late innings when games have often featured the Cubs up or down a run or tied.
The Cubs have already played in 29 one-run games (13-16), three more than any other team in the majors this season. Seven of the Cubs’ last 12 games have been decided by one run (3-4).
“That’s a really hard way to live,” Hoyer said. “We’ve played the same game pretty much for over a month now.”
While Hoyer reiterated that the answers must come from the organization, he also made clear that does not mean he isn’t on the phone all the time talking to other teams to look for possibilities.
“I wouldn’t be doing my job if I wasn’t doing that,” Hoyer said. “I’m also realistic about what the trade market is and the opportunity so I think that yes, of course, if there was the right offensive player that could come in and could spark us we would absolutely look into that. It’s just very difficult to find this time of year.”
Even if Hoyer wanted to make a deal right now to bolster the offense, he pointed to three factors that would inhibit that from happening: a lot of teams are not yet willing to make deals yet — complicated by seven teams being within 1.5 games of the third National League wild-card spot; teams that might sell aren’t ready to make that decision because of the message it sends to fans with more than 50% of the season left; and to pull off a trade at this point in the season would require the Cubs pay a massive premium.
“You’re doing something that’s irrational,” Hoyer said. “I shouldn’t say the trade market is not open. It’s just incredibly difficult to make those kinds of transactions on June 17.”
As Hoyer and the front office weigh their options in the coming weeks leading up to the July 30 trade deadline, the Cubs must determine how much prospect capital from a deep farm system they are willing to give up.
“The team’s performance is going to have a significant bearing on that,” Hoyer said.
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