Experts optimistic in 2024 Lethbridge housing outlook

There’s no crystal ball to tell the future for housing markets or development, but there is a sense of optimism for the coming year.

One expert in real estate construction and market is Bridget Mearns, the executive officer of BILD Lethbridge.

“We’re seeing migration into the city we’ve certainly heard of people coming in from Ontario,” Mearns said. “But we’ve heard of other people coming in from other parts of Alberta recognizing what we have here in our city and so that brings some optimism as well.”

Even with growing demand, the new housing numbers all look to be in a normal range other than an unusual blip in December last year, with 20 single detached home starts.

Mearns said numbers don’t tell the whole story.

“It’s weather related,” she explained. “We had pretty mild weather with the exception of a few really awful cold deep freeze weeks. It’s been a pretty good market for builders to build in, so they’re out there putting in foundations as late as they possibly can.”

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With 213 permits issued so far this year, compared to the 124 issued in the same time frame from the year prior, there are many projects to be built. One hundred eighty-nine of them were residential.

The largest difference this year over last is in the 141 renovation permits issued over the 64 last year. In a dollar amount, there have been $34,591,350-worth of permits issued this year, only $3,397,739 of that is those renovations, leaving $31,193,611-worth of building projects of residential buildings being done.

There are 11 new single detached permits with a value of just over $6 million. Last year at the same time there were just seven permits for around $4 million.

One of the surprising stats from January was the 85 multi-unit apartment starts being performed.

When it comes to financing a home, the numbers look promising there too.

Mortgage broker Rob Bain said when the Bank of Canada held interest rates in February, that was great news.

“Everybody’s celebrating because of that,” Bain said. “So, the hope is, if that trend continues, we will begin to see some rate cuts or rate decreases here from the Bank of Canada by mid-2024.”

Time, however, is of the essence, when it comes to buying.

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“So, should you buy now? If you wait six months or a year, sure, rates might be better,” Bain said. “But what are the prices going to be at that time?”

With all eyes on the Bank of Canada in the coming months, the housing industry is beginning to heat up again for the year.

“When the sale prices match the cost to build them, that’s when you’ll see the real estate markets really take off,” said Mearns

“In January, the prices were $543,377 which is actually lower than it was in December by around 6 per cent — still higher than last year by around 10 per cent. To build them, you’re looking at $365,279, a difference of $178,098 between price and cost. When those two get close, you’ll really see the houses fly off the shelves.”

The next prime rate announcements by the Bank of Canada are scheduled for June.