The 14% solution to keep McDavid and Draisaitl together, here and on top of the NHL

Published Aug 04, 2023 • Last updated 6 hours ago • 4 minute read

Leon Draisaitl #29 of the Edmonton Oilers celebrates his goal with Connor McDavid #97, and Evan Bouchard #2, to trail the Los Angeles Kings 3-2, during the second period in Game Four of the First Round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Crypto.com Arena on April 23, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. Photo by Harry How /Getty Images

There is great optimism right about now that the Edmonton Oilers will be able to sign both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to new long-term contracts which will keep them in Edmonton for years to come.

But is it possible McDavid and Draisaitl will also sign contracts that will allow them to stay together, stay here but also on top of the NHL?

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For that to happen, it’s likely that both players will have to do what McDavid did in his second contract negotiation, taking far less than he could have made. They both will have to take less than the full 20 per cent cap hit both would likely command if they went on the open NHL market with an eye to maximizing their own salaries.

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In his first contract, McDavid signed for $12.5 million per season, which represented 16.67 of Edmonton’s cap hit when he signed the deal. If he had pushed to get 20 per cent, he would almost certainly have got it, $15 million a year, $2.5 million more per season.

But McDavid didn’t push. He took one for the team.

In a hard cap world where NHL teams are constrained, McDavid left money on the table so that his Oilers would have more dollars to spread around to other players to build a better team.

This kind of admirable restraint from the greatest of NHLers — players destined to not only make the Hall of Fame but to be in the Top 10 or 20 players who have played in the NHL — is the norm.

The highest percentage a player ever took on a deal was Alex Ovechkin signing for 18.96 per cent of the cap on his second deal at age 23, but that deal was for 13 seasons, as was allowed at the time.

As Ovechkin played on and the cap went up, his cap hit’s percentage of Washington’s overall cap went down. Little wonder that it was in the 10th year of that 13-year deal in 2018, when Ovechkin’s cap hit was a much smaller percentage of the cap, that Washington had the financial muscle and strong team to finally win a Cup in the Ovechkin era.

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Compared to their second contracts, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin also both took a haircut percentage-wise on their share of the salary cap on their third contracts, signed when Crosby was 26 and Malkin 28.

They did so in order to help their Penguins compete. Crosby signed for just $8.7 million on a 12 year deal, 14.5 per cent of the cap when he signed, and Malkin an eight-year deal at $14.8 million per, 14.8 per cent, according to CapFriendly’s calculations.

Those bargain contracts have enabled the Penguins to ice strong teams repeatedly in recent years, including Cup-winning teams in 2016 and 2017.

Players either in the Top 50 NHLers of all time (or who still have a shot at it)

What will McDavid and Draisaitl seek on their next deals? I’m going to assume that either player could get the full 20 per cent if they decided to go on the open market. Draisaitl can sign a new deal after July 1, 2024. The cap is expected to go up about $5 million by then, from $83.5 million to $88.5 million.

If he takes that 20 per cent, he’ll be paid an annual salary of $17.7 million a season.

But if he decides to take in the range of the 14 per cent that Crosby and Malkin took on their second contracts, he’ll be paid $12.4 million, roughly the same as McDavid is paid right now. Let’s round that up to $12.5 million, with McDavid signing for the same amount $12.5 million per season two years from now.

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Will this happen? I have no idea. All I know is that superstars like Crosby, McDavid and Malkin have already left money on the table on major new contracts. They saw it in their self-interest to do so. I don’t know what McDavid or Draisaitl will see as their own self-interest in any new contract negotiation.

It could well be they’d be willing to take 14 per cent of the cap, but to do so on four or five years deals, not eight year maximum deals, leaving at least one more major contract for each down the road. Would that make sense?

That’s my guess, that both Draisaitl and McDavid will sign in Edmonton for about $12.5 million per on five-year terms.

This will represent both players making major bets on each other, on the Oilers, and doubling down on those bets by leaving on the table an extra $10 million per year or so in cap space for Edmonton’s GM to build a solid roster around them.

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