President Joe Biden has entered a new, more energetic phase in his campaign. Last week, he spent three days in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania. Today, he’s in Tampa, Florida, talking up abortion rights. Later this week, he’ll be in Syracuse, New York, announcing new federal funds for microchip production.
With former President Donald Trump coasting through primary elections as the presumptive 2024 Republican nominee, the United States is in uncharted territory: an incumbent president out on the campaign trail battling a quasi-incumbent, confined for now to a Manhattan courtroom as he fights criminal charges over hush money payments to a porn star.
Why We Wrote This
U.S. President Joe Biden has been more visible as of late, traveling to battleground states and emphasizing key issues like abortion. It signals a new, more vigorous phase in the campaign.
It’s too soon to say how the “trail versus trial” scenario will play out. Recent polls have shown an uptick in Mr. Biden’s support, with most surveys showing him and Mr. Trump essentially in a dead heat. For now, the Biden campaign is emphasizing issues like abortion that will energize key voter groups and highlighting economic initiatives aimed at improving the lives of everyday Americans.
“You’ve got to make a positive case,” says veteran Democratic strategist Robert Shrum. “But you can’t say, ‘Everything is hunky-dory.’ You can say, ‘A lot of things are better, but there’s a lot more to do.’”
President Joe Biden emerges from 2446 North Washington Avenue in Scranton, Pennsylvania, and strolls down the driveway, flanked by six children, hand-in-hand with two.
This is President Biden’s happy place – his childhood home, in a city that has come to embody one of the main themes of his reelection campaign: that the “little guy” can succeed through hard work, love of family, and faith in God and the future.
The president’s visit to Scranton also reflects a new, more energetic phase in his campaign. Less “Rose Garden,” Biden insiders say – referring to a White House-centered style of campaigning – and more travel around the country. Last week, Mr. Biden spent three days in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania – going to Scranton, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia.
Why We Wrote This
U.S. President Joe Biden has been more visible as of late, traveling to battleground states and emphasizing key issues like abortion. It signals a new, more vigorous phase in the campaign.
Today, he’s in Tampa, Florida, talking up abortion rights. Later this week, he’ll be in Syracuse, New York, announcing new federal funds for microchip production.
“We are entering a distinctly new period” in the campaign, says Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. “It’s been really noticeable since the State of the Union.”
President Joe Biden speaks at the Carpenters Union Hall during a visit to Scranton, Pennsylvania, on April 16, 2024. The economy is a key issue for voters in this battleground state.
With former President Donald Trump as the presumptive 2024 Republican nominee, the United States is in uncharted territory: an incumbent president out on the campaign trail battling a quasi-incumbent, confined for now to a Manhattan courtroom as he fights criminal charges over hush money payments to a porn star.
It’s too soon to say how the “trail versus trial” scenario will play out. Recent polls have shown an uptick in Mr. Biden’s support, with most surveys showing him and Mr. Trump essentially in a dead heat, though it’s still early. For now, the Biden campaign is sticking to core messages, emphasizing issues like abortion that will energize key voter groups and highlighting economic initiatives aimed at improving the lives of everyday Americans.
“There are some key fundamentals that apply here,” says veteran Democratic strategist Robert Shrum. “You’ve got to make a positive case. But you can’t say, “Everything is hunky-dory.’ You can say, ‘A lot of things are better, but there’s a lot more to do.’”
Aside from reproductive rights and “reshoring” of key economic components like microchips, the Biden administration has also focused on student loan forgiveness, health care costs, inflation, and public safety as pathways into Americans’ everyday lives.
Israel’s war in Gaza and climate change are also crucial issues to Mr. Biden’s chances in a close election, especially among young voters, as he seeks to ensure voters don’t peel off to outside candidates or simply stay home on Election Day.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., son of the slain Democratic icon, represents the biggest independent challenger this cycle. Last week in Philadelphia, more than a dozen members of the Kennedy clan – including six of Mr. Kennedy’s siblings – appeared in person to endorse Mr. Biden.
To the president, the event was deeply personal. He has a bust of Robert F. Kennedy, brother of the late President John F. Kennedy and a candidate for president in 1968 until his assassination, in his office. As fellow Irish-American Catholics, the Kennedy clan (aside from Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) have become loyal allies of Mr. Biden.
But whether the Kennedys will matter is questionable, as an unusually high number of voters have yet to engage in the 2024 election. The latest NBC poll shows that the share of voters with a “high interest” in the current election has hit a 20-year low, compared with previous presidential races.
Women hold signs ahead of President Joe Biden’s speech on abortion rights during a visit to Hillsborough Community College’s Dale Mabry campus in Tampa, Florida, April 23, 2024.
Furthermore, Mr. Biden’s team is more focused on issues than endorsements, including matters that speak to people directly, such as the economy and immigration, as well as abortion and the future of democracy.
On fundraising, the Biden campaign has a clear advantage, with more than $192 million in cash on hand at the start of March, compared with the $93 million the Trump campaign and Republican National Committee had raised by the start of April.
But fundraising isn’t everything, as campaign professionals know. In 2016, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton raised twice as much as Mr. Trump in a losing effort.
In this still-early phase of the 2024 cycle, “free media” is also a key part of the game. One challenge for both candidates is to garner as much free media as possible, and for Mr. Trump, that involves making a criminal trial into a positive, amid charges of a “witch hunt.” For Mr. Biden, that means touting promises of a return to normality.
Which brings us back to Pennsylvania, where Mr. Biden made eight campaign appearances last year.
In south Scranton last week, at a campaign organizing event in a carpenters’ union hall, chief Biden campaign strategist Mike Donilon agreed that the president will keep appearing regularly in his home state – as well as the other top battleground states.
So just how crucial is Pennsylvania? “It’s pretty high – Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan,” Mr. Donilon tells the Monitor, rattling off the “big three.”
Some analysts describe Pennsylvania as a microcosm of the country, though it’s a bit whiter and older.
“It does look like America in many ways, especially when you’re talking about voting behaviors,” says Berwood Yost, director of polling at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. “The mix of geographies and educational attainment, plus age distribution and race – all those things come together in ways that lead to competitive elections.”
Mr. Biden used his Pennsylvania connection for all he could last week.
In Scranton, as he prayed at a World War II war memorial and shook every hand in a visit to a cafe, the visuals were clear: His roots are in middle America, no matter how high he has risen.
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