Paul Skenes is having a rookie season unlike many, but he could still find himself receiving an innings limit after the All-Star break.
The Pirates phenom flirted with multiple no-hitters and later earned the starting bump for the All-Star game, becoming the sixth youngest in history and youngest since Dwight Gooden in 1986.
Skenes has also had multiple outings of 11 strikeouts and zero hits, joining Nolan Ryan as the only two players in MLB history to have at least two in one season.
The second half of his rookie season can be just as impressive, but it likely won’t stop Pittsburgh from saving their prized pitcher’s arm for the future.
With his first half in the books, here’s a look at how many innings Skenes may pitch by the end of the season.
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How many innings will Paul Skenes pitch in 2024?
Skenes has thrown just 66.1 innings across 11 games in the majors, as well as 27.1 innings in the minors. He’s averaging about six innings per start and hasn’t pitched past the seventh inning yet.
The Pirates called up baseball’s No. 1 prospect in early May, so he’s pitched a month less than many notable healthy starters. Nonetheless, he’s played himself into becoming an All-Star with a 1.90 ERA and 89 strikeouts. His 12.1 K/9 ratio would rank second in all of baseball if he qualified with enough innings pitched.
He’s been excellent in his starts, winning six-of-11 outings and never leaving the game with the Pirates trailing.
In all 11 of Paul Skenes starts this season, he has never left the game with the Pirates trailing.
Insane. pic.twitter.com/qW2oCVxgs8
— StatMuse MLB (@statmusemlb) July 11, 2024
Still, the Pirates have some work to do. They sit at 48-48 at the All-Star break and aren’t World Series contenders. The playoffs are in reach, but the organization isn’t likely to push Skenes to his limit to break into the postseason.
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Pittsburgh has 66 games left, which means Skenes can start as many as 13 more games if he pitches every five games. On a six-inning average, Skenes would throw about 78 more innings for a regular season total of 144.1.
While that number is the average, it’s probably leaning toward the higher side considering the Pirates are conservative with their ace. They showed they’re not willing to let him go over his limits when they pulled him after seven innings of no-hit ball.
It’s the second time the team pulled him from a no-hitter, but his girlfriend and famous gymnast Livvy Dunne isn’t surprised.
“It would have been a cool accolade to say that you threw a no-hitter your rookie year,” Dunne said. “But also, you got to make that arm last long. I don’t blame them.”
Skenes will also be pitching at the All-Star game, likely getting at least one inning as the National League starter. It’s not overly exhausting, but it doesn’t allow the rookie to fully rest during the break.
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Paul Skenes pitch count
Along with an innings limit, Skenes likely has a pitch count limit, as well. It may vary depending on how well he’s throwing on any particular day, but it stopped him from chasing two no-hitters.
Still, the Pirates rookie has surpassed 100 pitches in just four of his 11 starts. Here’s what his pitch count looks like midway through the season.
DateOpponentPitch countMay 11vs. Chicago Cubs84May 17*at Chicago Cubs100May 23vs. San Francisco Giants93May 29at Detroit Tigers96June 5vs. Los Angeles Dodgers93June 11at St. Louis Cardinals103June 17vs. Cincinnati Reds96June 23vs. Tampa Bay Rays98June 29at Atlanta Braves102July 5vs. New York Mets107July 11*at Milwaukee Brewers99Total 1,071
*Left with no-hitter intact
Considering Skenes’ pitch count is fairly high for a rookie starting pitcher, the Pirates might be even more conservative with his innings. Innings aren’t an issue if a pitcher can get through them with a low pitch count. It becomes concerning if the pitcher has a lot of innings and a high pitch count.
If Skenes pitches the estimated average of 144.1 innings, he’d end his rookie season with about 2,337 pitches thrown. That’s also under the assumption that he keeps pace with his first-half pitch count.
How Paul Skenes compares to MLB All-Stars
Skenes has quickly become one of the top pitchers in MLB despite being just 22. Here’s how he stacks up against some of baseball’s best pitchers in their rookie season.
PlayerYearAgeStartsIPERASOPaul Skenes2024221166.11.9089Spencer Strider20222320131.22.67202Jacob DeGrom20142622140.12.69144Gerrit Cole20132219117.13.22100Zack Wheeler201323171003.4284Clayton Kershaw20082021107.24.26100
Many of the aforementioned pitchers took a leap in their innings total after their rookie season. Teams are generally cautious with young aces, trying to preserve their arm long-term. Skenes could see the same trend in 2025.
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