As the public betting masses continue piling on Super Bowl prop markets, oddsmakers from coast to coast are identifying a key concern.
Not an unexpected concern, but a concern no less.
“The one player we are not a fan of is Travis Kelce. We’ll be sweating every time the ball goes near him,” said Caesars Sports Vice President of Trading Craig Mucklow.
That’ll happen when an already wildly popular player is dating the world’s biggest pop star in Taylor Swift, and then both those worlds collide in the largest single-day event on the American sports betting calendar.
Swift is expected to be in attendance Sunday for the Kansas City Chiefs’ showdown against the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII, and Mucklow joined a few bookmakers in breaking down the state of Kelce Super Bowl prop bets — and whether the Swifties are adding to a growing liability.
Let’s dive into the fun!
Touchdowns for Taylor
A few oddsmakers didn’t want to specifically attribute all the Kelce bets to his status as Swift’s boyfriend. But there’s no doubt that the Swifties are impacting Super Bowl prop odds and action on the Chiefs tight end.
Consider this eye-opening statement from Mucklow, during a conversation Wednesday on Super Bowl Radio Row in Las Vegas:
“There are more tickets on Kelce to score at any time during the game than there are on the 49ers spread and moneyline combined.”
Kelcey Anytime Touchdown is -105 at Caesars (bet $10 to win $19.52 total), making him the third choice in that market, behind 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey — who’s the -225 favorite (bet $10 to win $14.44 total) — and Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (-125, bet $10 to win $18 total).
Plenty of bettors anticipate not only a Kelce anytime touchdown, but an early touchdown, too.
“Kelce is our biggest liability on first touchdown,” BetMGM trader Christian Cipollini said.
Kelce is the +600 third choice in BetMGM’s Player to Score First TD market, again behind McCaffrey (+350) and Pacheco (+550).
Taylor Swift Super Bowl Props: connecting lucky number 13 to Travis Kelce, Chiefs
MVP for the Swifties?
At BetMGM, no player is taking more Super Bowl MVP bets than Kelce, and he’s No. 2 in MVP money, trailing only McCaffrey.
Kudos to anyone who jumped on Kelce early in the playoffs. When BetMGM first posted Super Bowl MVP odds, prior to the wild-card round, Kelce was a +12500 long shot — 125-1.
So a $100 bet would profit a hefty $12,500 if Kelce wins the award.
Ahead of conference championship weekend, Kelce could still be had at +5000 to win Super Bowl MVP. So a $100 investment would profit $5,000.
Now, as Super Bowl Sunday approaches, he’s the +1300 fourth choice in BetMGM’s MVP odds, behind teammate Patrick Mahomes — the +135 favorite — and the 49ers’ Brock Purdy (+230) and McCaffrey (+450).
“Kelce is definitely our worst way for MVP right now,” BetMGM trader Tristan Davis said.
Chase Michaelson, risk supervisor at The SuperBook, was firmly tongue-in-cheek as he described bettors piling on Kelce, for MVP and beyond.
“Spoiler Alert: Yes, they’re obsessed with Travis Kelce,” Michaelson said, noting that The SuperBook didn’t post MVP odds until conference championship week. “We have tremendous liability in the Super Bowl MVP market for Kelce. We opened 20-1 and have been bet down to 12-1, which is really something for a tight end, even one with as prolific a pass-catching career as Kelce.
“Zero tight ends have ever won Super Bowl MVP. But none of those tight ends were the most famous player on the team.”
Nor were they dating one of the most famous people on the entire globe.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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