Bitcoin (BTC) 200 Week MA Hits $33K – Will it Ever Break That Floor?

Bitcoin shows an interesting pattern on the price charts, as the 200-week Moving Average (WMA) is $33,000. According to analyst PlanB, it is highly unlikely that Bitcoin will ever break that floor and drop below $33,000.

Bitcoin 200 Week MA Shows Potential for Further Price Gains

Bitcoin 200 week moving average is $33k .. highly unlikely that BTC will ever break that floor IMO. More info: https://t.co/ovkzvVglds pic.twitter.com/hqc2xsjp4S

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) April 4, 2024

In the X post, PlanB noted that Bitcoin formed a triple top in 2024, just before its halving. This is a change from its old historical price pattern, where the top was formed after the halving events. 

Also, according to his analysis, a notable rally for Bitcoin post-halving will likely begin in May. Additionally, he noted that Bitcoin attaining the $100,000 price level in 2024 is inevitable and will occur at some point.   

Based on these predictions, BTC could rally even higher, but 100,000 is the conservative target for the year. So, the analyst predicts that Bitcoin could rise to $500,000 before the next halving in 2028. However, this process will likely take several months and not instantly.  

Also, according to his analysis, the next top on the BTC chart will not occur in 2024 but at some point in 2025. The analyst’s next chart focused on market cycles, confirming we are in a bull market. 

Based on historical data, the red dots on the chart represent the bull market and form a sequence leading to a sustained rally. This bullish phase could persist for a year or less, depending on other variables like interest rates and investor sentiments. 

However, PlanB predicts dips in between for the current bull market and advises a calm market assessment. This assessment will help investors know when the trend eventually changes.    

Also, when the bull market ends, the yellow dots will form on the chart, which will signal to make a move.

Analyst PlanB Focuses on Technical Indicators to Assess Bitcoin’s Performance

Further, the analyst considered the Relative Strength Index Indicator (RSI), which displayed a value of 77. This is the highest level ever for Bitcoin’s RSI before a halving. 

Based on the analysis, the high RSI value likely implies that diminishing returns for Bitcoin will not occur anytime soon. Also, PlanB referred to the  200 Week Moving Average (200WMA), which is at the $33,000 price level and rising.

A thick black line on the chart represents this indicator. He believes the $33,000 price level can be seen as the price floor, which can be breached in a bear market. However, in a bull market and a halving, Bitcoin’s price historically rises higher than the 200 WMA (price floor). 

So, he strongly believes that Bitcoin will stay above the $33,000 price level. He also considered the two-year realized price chart for BTC, PlanB noted that it is rising fast due to bullish market conditions. 

This realized price metric is at the $44,000 price level, and the analyst also claims that Bitcoin does not drop below in a bull market. Meanwhile, he noted that sellers made more than 60% from Bitcoin in March as a realized return, confirming a bull market.   

Nevertheless, he disclaimed that all the predictions are not financial advice but based on personal research.

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