Ukrainian forces are still making slight frontline gains as they continue the search for a decisive battlefield breakthrough of Russian positions before the onset of winter weather that will likely force a pause in mechanized operations.
The Institute for the Study of War on Thursday noted recent Ukrainian advances in four key areas of the front line: the salient formed in the Robotyne area in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, the nearby village of Verbove, the Vremivka region of Donetskin the east, and on the Russian-occupied east bank of the Dnieper River—known as the Dnipro River in Ukrainian.
“Ukrainian forces launched assaults in the Donetsk-[Zaporizhzhia] Oblast border area on November 16 and made confirmed advances,” the ISW wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter. The reported Ukrainian gains in the three key areas of fighting were all confirmed by ISW with geolocated footage.
Newsweek is unable to independently verify the reports and has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.
Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive—which Kyiv said was planned to be a spring operation but was delayed due to the slow arrival of important Western military equipment—has been territorially underwhelming. Hopes of repeating the fall 2022 success around Kharkiv appear to have been dashed, with the prospects of reaching the Sea of Azov coastline and the approaches to Crimea now distant.
Kyiv has achieved significant success even while its units have struggled to break through in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk. Ukrainian forces have crossed the Dnieper River outside Kherson, and repeatedly launched attacks on occupied Crimea. Much of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has reportedly been forced to flee the peninsula.
At the front, Ukraine has been eroding large amounts of Russian artillery and logistics capabilities in the occupied south of the country. Officials in Kyiv have repeatedly stressed that the counteroffensive is not only focused on territorial gains, but also on whittling down the Russian ability to fight.
Ukrainian forces will be hoping to further punish Russia’s logistical networks over the winter months, using its Western cruise missiles and some versions of the long-awaited MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System—known as the ATACMS—which are now in front-line use.
Moscow’s mauled military still seemingly believes it can win meaningful gains as well. Russian forces have been on the offensive in recent months in the northeastern Luhansk-Kharkiv and eastern Donetsk regions, most recently pressing a major offensive effort around the Ukrainian fortress city of Avdiivka.
There, senior Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksandr Merezhko told Newsweek, the Russian command appears to “trying to repeat the situation with Bakhmut,” a reference to the devastated Donetsk city seized by Moscow’s troops in May at enormous cost. “It’s ready to sacrifice lots of its human lives,” Merezhko said.
Ukrainian servicemen fire an anti-aircraft gun in the Chernihiv region on November 11, 2023. Ukrainian forces are still pushing offensive operations while preparing for a renewed Russian winter bombardment.
SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP via Getty Images
Ukraine will have to weather these assaults and another Russian winter bombardment, with Moscow thought to have stockpiled hundreds of missiles and an unknown number of drones—some the Iranian-made Shahed system—to again attack infrastructure targets nationwide.
“We are almost halfway through November and must be prepared for the fact that the enemy may increase the number of drone or missile strikes on our infrastructure,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said this week.
“Russia is preparing for Ukraine. And here, in Ukraine, all attention should be focused on defense, on responding to terrorists on everything that Ukraine can do to get through the winter and improve our soldiers’ capabilities.”
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