Foreign Affairs
State of the Union: Reform UK is now projected to win five seats.
According to new constituency polling conducted by Survation, Nigel Farage is on track to win his constituency of Clacton by a wide margin.
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The poll currently shows Farage leading the field, with 42 percent to the 27 percent of the closest candidate, the incumbent Tory MP Giles Watling. Farage is also the party leader with the highest favorability in the constituency at 38 percent, compared to 19 percent for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and 16 for Keir Starmer.
This polling comes at a time when prospects have been looking up for Farage and his Reform UK party. The recent YouGov MRP model for June shows Reform winning five seats, up from none in the previous model, which was made before Farage entered the race.
Britain uses a first-past-the-post system for its elections, which disfavors small parties while elevating large and well established ones. In POLITICO’s aggregate of polls, Reform UK is currently in third at 16 percent, behind the 20 percent of the Conservatives and 41 percent for Labour. Should Reform overtake the Tories, as indicated in last week’s YouGov poll, then it is possible that more Reform’s seat number may dramatically increase.
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