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Coming off a World Series in which both participants — the Rangers and D-backs — had losing records in 2022, it is pretty clear that MLB’s turnaround trend is very much intact. Half of the ’23 postseason field was made up of clubs that had not reached the playoffs the year prior.
So as the Hot Stove season continues to unfold, let’s take a look at some teams that might have what it takes to morph from also-rans to October entries.
This is not an exhaustive list. We are fully in favor of teams like the Pirates or Tigers or Royals or Nationals or someone else storming out of nowhere, a la the 2023 Marlins (69 wins one year, the NL’s fifth seed the next). But these are the 10 teams most likely to make the jump in ’24, ranked (by yours truly) in order of likelihood.
1. Yankees
This one is less of a strict baseball analysis and more just an unambiguous observation: Do we really think the Yankees are going to miss the playoffs in consecutive years? Really? That very concept seems suspicious.
Even when they aren’t very good, as was unequivocally the case in 2023, they somehow manage to finish with a winning record. And the early aggressiveness with the acquisitions of Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham is not going to be followed with hibernation from here on out.
Obviously, the Yankees have pitching concerns beyond Gerrit Cole and could certainly still stand to be more athletic overall. But we’ve seen enough Bronx baseball to know what’s probaby coming: Soto having an MVP-caliber year, Carlos Rodón resurrecting his career, Anthony Volpe making The Leap.
You know, the kind of Yankees stuff that drives most of the country crazy.
2. Reds
Cincinnati did not supply the 2023 Rookie of the Year, but this was the Rookie Core of the Year, with Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Matt McLain, Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson, Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte all making exciting contributions, and other young players such as Will Benson, TJ Friedl and Hunter Greene getting their first taste of contention.
The Reds won’t be sneaking up on anybody in 2024, and expectations can always alter the equation with a predominantly young club. But if their offseason activity — kicked off by the additions of Jeimer Candelario, Nick Martinez and Emilio Pagán — is as ample as they hope, the Reds could potentially enter 2024 as favorites in a winnable NL Central.
3. Cubs
It’s a layup to include the Cubs prominently on this list after their surge into contention in 2023, and they now have one of the absolute best managers in the game in Craig Counsell. But after falling flat in the final weekend, there are a lot of questions to answer here. They could very well lose free agent Cody Bellinger, who is the most coveted position player on the market now that Shohei Ohtani and Soto are no longer available. Additionally, in-season trade acquisition Candelario has already moved to a division rival and Marcus Stroman is a free agent.
Still, with a strong defensive base, a true ace in Justin Steele and a willingness to spend (as they did for Dansby Swanson a year ago) to bring in an impact bat and rotation help, the Cubs have a very good chance of asserting themselves in the NL Central. So they rank high here, even if a lot of this projection is sight unseen.
4. Guardians
The Guards get a high ranking only because someone is definitely going to win the AL Central next season, even if the record isn’t pretty. The defending division-champion Twins, who were only an 87-75 team to begin with, are vulnerable after the loss of co-ace Sonny Gray, as well as Kenta Maeda and Pagán, in free agency. Elsewhere in the division, the White Sox are rebuilding and, while the Tigers and Royals have very interesting pieces and have already made some frisky moves on the Hot Stove, they also have plenty to prove.
So the safest bet to upend the Central — for now, at least — is the 2022 division-champion Guardians. Because even if they move Shane Bieber and/or closer Emmanuel Clase, a full season of health from Triston McKenzie would further stabilize a rotation that got exciting contributions from Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen last season. The Guards have Lake Erie-sized holes in their lineup and they also have a rookie manager in the dugout in Stephen Vogt. But it’s a low bar for entry in this division, and a competitive pitching staff gives Cleveland as good a chance of anybody to clear it.
5. Mariners
Had all gone to plan, the Mariners would have followed up their first postseason appearance in a generation in 2022 with their franchise-first World Series appearance in 2023. Instead, they missed the playoffs by just a game, despite a healthy plus-99 run differential.
With one of the most dynamic players in the sport in Julio Rodríguez and a strong rotation that is fronted by Luis Castillo and features the burgeoning young arms of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo (to say nothing of the eventual return of veteran Robbie Ray from Tommy John surgery), it’s obvious that the Mariners can make a run next season. But the Jarred Kelenic trade was a startling start to the offseason for a club that really needs to improve its lineup potential — especially in a division responsible for the last two World Series winners. So we’ll temper expectations for the M’s until or unless the winter takes on a more encouraging turn.
6. Mets
Generations of fans and scribes have tried to make sense of the Mets, to no avail. Last year, the Steve Cohen-owned club carried the largest payroll in the history of the sport, yet somehow wasn’t particularly great at any individual area of the game. New president of baseball operations David Stearns aims to change that, but it could potentially be a lengthy process of Stearns truly putting his imprint on this brand. The Mets will not enter 2024 with a roster that appears World Series-caliber. And already, the loss of prospect Ronny Mauricio, who was a candidate for the third base job, to an torn ACL in winter ball is a big blow.
Still, the Mets retain the seeds of a club that can contend for a postseason spot, including veteran lineup pieces Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo, a potentially solid top of the rotation in Kodai Senga, José Quintana and Luis Severino, returning closer Edwin Díaz and some upside as young pieces like Francisco Alvarez, Mark Vientos and Brett Baty settle in. Cohen is trying to throw his financial weight around in the Yoshinobu Yamamoto market, and that would be a significant upgrade to the pitching staff. So while we don’t (ever) claim to know what to expect from the Mets, we should not discount their chances of dusting themselves off in the coming season.
7. Cardinals
While it was nice to see the Cards act swiftly in the pitching market, there is some healthy skepticism attached to putting Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson in front of an iffy defense (the aging odds are also seemingly stacked against the Cards getting full, healthy seasons from all three).
But sure, if the pitching pans out, there’s reason to think a club that has Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras and strong young talent in Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar and Masyn Winn can contend in this particular division. We’re grading on a curve in this exercise, and the Cardinals get some geography-based bonus points.
8. Padres
Had you known, going into 2023, that the Padres would finish second in the NL in staff ERA and sixth in runs, that Blake Snell would win the Cy Young and Josh Hader would have a 1.28 ERA, that Soto and Manny Machado would both bash 30 homers and that Fernando Tatis Jr. would come back to go deep 25 times with 29 steals, that Ha-Seong Kim would receive down-ballot MVP support and that the club would outscore its opposition by 104 runs, you would probably assume they at least achieved a Wild Card berth.
But no! The final Wild Card spot went to a D-backs team with a minus-15 run differential while the Padres headed into a winter of discontent.
One would assume that a team that couldn’t get to October with Soto, Hader and Snell is going to have an awfully hard time getting to October without Soto, Hader and (likely) Snell. But the 2023 club is evidence of the faulty nature of our assumptions. This is still a dangerous, albeit super top-heavy, lineup, and, as painful as the Soto trade was, it did bring back some quality pitching depth fronted by Michael King. You don’t have to squint too hard to see this team finishing above .500, and that might be all it takes to nab a Wild Card spot.
9. Giants
Someone finally took their money, and his name is Jung Hoo Lee. Is he an established commodity along the lines of an Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa or Ohtani? Of course not. But the KBO star gives the Giants a high-contact, low-strikeout presence in a lineup that needs more stability. He’s not the answer to all that’s plaguing an organization that fired manager Gabe Kapler and brought Bob Melvin into the fold, but it’s a start.
The Giants, who played .500 ball for much of 2023, still have the finances to make additional upgrades to their lineup and rotation. So they deserve a spot on this list, even if it will be challenging to overtake not only the Dodgers but the D-backs.
10. Red Sox
Boston has shown us before how quickly a club with ample resources can surge up the standings. And with the emergence of Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, Connor Wong, Ceddane Rafaela and Brayan Bello last season, Masataka Yoshida proving to be a worthy investment and Trevor Story having recovered from Tommy John surgery, new president of baseball operations Craig Breslow has a lot to work with.
That said, the Red Sox need quality innings aplenty in the “full throttle” offseason that was promised by chairman Tom Werner. And while there is a lot of inventory in this market, there is also a lot of competition for it. Some good arms have already landed elsewhere and the division is obviously unforgiving, so forgive Red Sox fans if they’re a little antsy. We’ll rank the Red Sox on the low side for now, given how brutal the AL East is.
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