TeslaFSDTracker provides crowdsourced data about Tesla FSD. They are showing Tesla FSD 12.3.6 users reporting 399 miles between disengagements in City driving. This is over three times more distance than the best version of Tesla FSD 11.X.
They are also showing 98% of drives having no critical disengagements versus 11.X having 91-94.5% of drives having no critical disengagements.
They also show 73% of FSD 12.3.6 drives with no disengagements versus 40% of FSD 11.X drives with no disengagements.
It looks like late this week would be when Tesla employees start getting FSD 12.4 and then days after it should go to a limited number of Tesla customers.
I predict Tesla FSD 12.4 should improve lane handling, speed and other areas that cause disengagements for FSD 12.3.6. This should enable 800-1000 miles between disengagements.
Tesla FSD 12.4 should have over 99% of drives with no critical disengagements and 90% of drives with no disengagements.
Tesla FSD 12.5 is supposed to be next level. I predict Tesla FSD 12.5 should reverse and a few other remaining missing features from FSD 12.3.6. This should enable over 2000 miles between disengagements. Tesla FSD 12.4 should have over 99.5% of drives with no critical disengagements and 96% of drives with no disengagements. This should enable a month between disengagements under normal driving.
The Tesla FSD 12.5 would enable far more FSD sales and for robotaxi testing with safety drivers while major releases happen about once a month.
At the thirteen minute mark of this video Billionaire investor Ron Baron says Tesla robotaxis will make about $40,000 to $50,000 per year. Ron has a few billions dollars of Tesla shares and gets non-public information about the status of FSD and Tesla AI.
Full video from this morning where you’ll find the above quote: pic.twitter.com/FshULylNy6
— Christopher Dungeon (@ChrisDungeon) April 25, 2024
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
Known for identifying cutting edge technologies, he is currently a Co-Founder of a startup and fundraiser for high potential early-stage companies. He is the Head of Research for Allocations for deep technology investments and an Angel Investor at Space Angels.
A frequent speaker at corporations, he has been a TEDx speaker, a Singularity University speaker and guest at numerous interviews for radio and podcasts. He is open to public speaking and advising engagements.
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