Bitcoin (BTC) has risen more than 120% year-to-date, indicating that the crypto sentiment has improved significantly. Solid buying has resulted in a sharp increase in crypto wallets holding more than $1 million in Bitcoin this year from 23,795 on Jan. 1 to 81,925 currently, according to BitInfoCharts data.
After the substantial rally, Bitcoin could face headwinds in the near term as investors digest the macroeconomic data and events due this week. The Consumer Price Index data is set to be released on Nov. 14, followed by the Producer Price Index data on Nov. 15, and the Nov. 17 deadline to avoid a partial United States government shutdown could give rise to short-term volatility.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
A short-term pullback is healthy for the long-term trend of the market. It is also likely to be viewed as a buying opportunity by traders as most analysts anticipate Bitcoin to rally in 2024, buoyed by the expectations of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund finally receiving regulatory approval.
Will Bitcoin and select altcoins start a short-term correction, or will the bulls maintain their buy pressure and clear the respective overhead resistance levels? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) snapped back from the neckline on Nov. 9, indicating that the bulls are buying on every minor dip.
SPX daily chart. Source: TradingView
The 20-day exponential moving average (4,319) has started to turn up, and the relative strength index (RSI) has risen into the positive zone, indicating that the bulls are in command. A break and close above the downtrend line will clear the path for a rally to 4,512.
However, the bears are unlikely to give up easily. They will try to fiercely protect the downtrend line and drag the price below the neckline. If they do that, the index may drop to the 20-day EMA. Sellers will have to sink the price below the 20-day EMA to come out on top.
U.S. Dollar Index price analysis
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) tumbled below the descending channel pattern on Nov. 3, but the bears could not build upon this advantage and start a deeper correction.
DXY daily chart. Source: TradingView
That started a recovery, which has reached the 20-day EMA (105.92). If the price turns down sharply from the current level, it will suggest that the sentiment has turned negative and traders are selling at the 20-day EMA. That could pull the price down to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 104.38.
On the other hand, if bulls propel the price above the 20-day EMA, the index could rise to the resistance line of the descending channel pattern.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin has been holding near the channel’s resistance line for the past four days, but the bulls have failed to start the next leg of the uptrend. This suggests that demand dries up at higher levels.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
If the price re-enters inside the channel, it will suggest that the breakout on Nov. 9 may have been a bull trap. Short-term traders may book profits, pulling the price toward the 20-day EMA ($34,961).
The overbought level on the RSI also warns of a possible correction or consolidation in the near term. The correction may extend to $32,400 and eventually to $31,000 if the bears yank the BTC/USDT pai below the channel.
Conversely, if the price turns up sharply and ascends above $38,000, it will indicate the start of a rally to $40,000.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) rebounded off the psychological level at $2,000 on Nov. 12, indicating that the bulls are trying to flip the level into support.
ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Buyers will make one more attempt to overcome the obstacle at $2,200. If they succeed, the ETH/USDT pair could pick up momentum and soar toward $3,000, as there is no major resistance level in between.
Meanwhile, the bears are likely to have other plans. They are likely to mount a vigorous defense at $2,200. If the price turns down from this level, the pair may consolidate between $2,000 and $2,200 for a few days. The short-term trend will turn negative if the price breaks and sustains below $2,000. The pair may then collapse to the 20-day EMA ($1,908).
BNB price analysis
BNB (BNB) has been consolidating between $240 and $258 for the past few days. This has pulled the RSI down from the overbought zone.
BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The upsloping 20-day EMA ($238) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate an advantage to buyers. If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, the bulls will try to propel the BNB/USDT pair to $265. This level may again witness a tough battle between the bulls and the bears, but if cleared, the pair may surge to $285.
On the downside, the bears will have to yank the price below $235 to indicate the start of a deeper connection to the 50-day SMA ($222).
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) has been trading below $0.67 for the past few days, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not allowed the price to skid below the 20-day EMA ($0.62).
XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The tight consolidation near $0.67 enhances the prospects of a break above it. If that happens, the XRP/USDT pair could jump to $0.74. This level may pose a challenge, but it is likely to be crossed. That could start a rally toward $0.85.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bulls have given up. That could sink the pair toward the next significant support at $0.56.
Solana price analysis
Solana (SOL) skyrocketed above the $48 resistance on Nov. 10 and ascended the $59 level on Nov. 11, but the bulls are facing stiff opposition from the bears.
SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The rally of the past few days pushed the RSI above 88, indicating that the rally is overextended and a correction or consolidation may be around the corner. If the price turns down from the current level, the SOL/USDT pair could slide to $48. This level is likely to attract buyers who will try to flip $48 into support.
On the contrary, if the $48 level gives way, it will suggest that the traders are rushing to the exit. The pair may then decline to the 20-day EMA ($43).
Related: Bitcoin institutional inflows top $1B in 2023 amid BTC supply squeeze
Cardano price analysis
Cardano (ADA) pushed through the barrier at $0.38 on Nov. 10, but the bulls failed to build upon the recovery. This indicates that the bears are fiercely defending the $0.38 level.
ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
Sellers will try to tug the price to the 20-day EMA ($0.34). If bulls want to maintain their hold, they will have to guard the 20-day EMA with vigor. A strong rebound off this level will increase the likelihood of a rally above $0.38. The pair may first rise to $0.42 and subsequently to $0.46.
Alternatively, if the price continues lower and plummets below the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the ADA/USDT pair may spend some time inside the large range between $0.24 and $0.38.
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) rose above $0.08 on Nov. 11, but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels as seen from the long wick on the day’s candlestick.
DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
The failure to maintain above the overhead hurdle has started a pullback toward the 20-day EMA ($0.07). Buyers will try to defend this level and start a rebound off it. If they manage to do that, the DOGE/USDT pair could rally to $0.08. This is an important level to watch out for because a break above it could open the doors for a rally to $0.10.
Contrarily, a break and close below the 20-day EMA will signal that the pair may stay range-bound between $0.06 and $0.08 for some time.
Chainlink price analysis
Chainlink’s (LINK) solid rally of the past few days pushed the RSI above 86, indicating that the rally was overextended in the near term.
LINK/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
That may have tempted short-term traders to book profits near $16.60 on Nov. 12. The LINK/USDT pair could pullback to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $14.27 and then to the 50% retracement level of $13.55.
The real test will be at the 20-day EMA ($13). A strong rebound off this level will suggest that buyers continue viewing the dips as a buying opportunity. That may push the price toward $16.60. If this level is scaled, the pair may reach $18. This bullish view will be invalidated in the near term if the price slips and maintains below the 20-day EMA.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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